Sign in

    PG&E Corp (PCG)

    Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 24, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$17.53Last close (Apr 23, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$17.71Open (Apr 24, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.18(+1.03%)
    • Strong Beneficial Load Growth: PG&E’s data center pipeline, with 1.4 gigawatts in final engineering expected to be 90% online by 2030, is driving beneficial load growth that can help lower customer electricity bills while increasing infrastructure utilization and revenue opportunities.
    • Positive Regulatory and Credit Developments: The company is making progress in achieving an investment-grade balance sheet—with recent rating agency improvements and steps toward resolving AB 1054 uncertainty—indicating that a favorable regulatory environment could lower financing costs and enhance growth prospects.
    • Efficient Cost Management and Capital Discipline: PG&E’s focus on operational savings, such as aggressive O&M cost reductions and controlled capital allocation (e.g., undergrounding plans and domestic sourcing to mitigate tariff impact), supports a lean operating system that can drive long-term profitability and affordability.
    • Investment Grade Uncertainty: Despite recent upgrade from Moody’s on the utility issuer rating, the holding company remains below investment grade. This ongoing legislative uncertainty—particularly around resolving AB 1054—could delay a full IG rating, potentially leading to higher borrowing costs and increased market risk.
    • Legislative and Wildfire-Fund Risk: The discussion around AB 1054 reveals significant legislative uncertainty. If the state mandates investor contributions to the wildfire fund or imposes less favorable terms, it could increase financing burdens, hurt investor sentiment, and elevate customer costs.
    • Higher Cost of Capital and Dilution Pressures: The quarter’s lower core earnings, attributed in part to dilution from the equity issuance and a lower tailwind compared to prior periods, coupled with an elevated cost of capital near 11.3%, raises concerns over rising financing costs and potential pressure on future earnings growth.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Operating Revenues

    +2% (from $5,861 million to $5,983 million in Q1 2025)

    The modest increase in revenues is attributed to a combination of rate relief measures and incremental recoveries from operations, consistent with earlier periods where adjustments like the WMCE interim rate relief contributed to revenue stability despite mixed cost components.

    Electric Operating Revenues

    +2% (reaching $4,135 million in Q1 2025)

    Electric revenues grew modestly likely due to similar rate case approvals and interim relief benefits as seen in previous periods, despite offsetting factors such as earlier decreases in procurement cost recovery; the increase reflects continuity in the recovery mechanisms applied in earlier fiscal periods.

    Natural Gas Operating Revenues

    +2% (up to $1,848 million in Q1 2025)

    The slight increase in natural gas revenues suggests improved recovery of natural gas costs, potentially through better volume or revised bundled sales recoveries, helping to offset previous declines driven by lower market prices as seen in earlier periods.

    Net Income

    -14% (declined from $735 million to $634 million in Q1 2025)

    The significant decline in net income is driven by margin pressures despite higher revenue, primarily resulting from a sharp increase in the Cost of Electricity and other operating expenses, unlike previous periods where lower procurement costs helped improve profitability.

    Cost of Electricity

    +24% (rose from $321 million to $399 million in Q1 2025)

    The surge in electricity costs indicates rising procurement expenses or higher fuel costs, reversing the favorable trends from earlier periods when lower natural gas prices helped reduce these costs; this increased by over 24% and negatively affected margins.

    Cost of Natural Gas

    -6% (decreased from $529 million to $496 million in Q1 2025)

    The 6% decline in natural gas costs reflects continued benefits from lower natural gas commodity prices, consistent with reductions observed in previous periods, thereby partially cushioning overall cost increases in operations.

    Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities

    +23% (improved from $2,309 million to $2,848 million in Q1 2025)

    The strong improvement in cash flows is driven by enhanced collections, including extended operations recoveries and rate-based increases, reinforcing operating liquidity despite the net income drop; this mirrors earlier periods where higher collections drove a significant increase in cash provided by operations.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Core EPS

    FY 2025

    $1.48 to $1.52

    $1.48 to $1.52

    no change

    EPS Growth Guidance

    FY 2026–2028

    At least 9% growth per year

    At least 9% growth each year

    no change

    Capital Investment Plan

    Through FY 2028

    $63 billion capital investment plan through 2028

    $63 billion capital investment plan through FY 2028

    no change

    Additional Customer Investment

    Through FY 2028

    Potential for at least $5 billion in additional customer investment needs

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Bill Increases

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Targeting stabilization at or below inflation, 2% to 4%

    no prior guidance

    Long-term Debt Guidance

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Modestly reduced by $0.5 billion with some debt shifted to FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    Dividend Payout Target

    FY 2028

    Target to reach a 20% dividend payout ratio of core EPS by 2028

    Aiming for a 20% dividend payout by FY 2028

    no change

    2025 Annual Dividend Rate

    FY 2025

    $0.10, up from $0.04 in 2024

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Return on Equity (ROE)

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    11.3% based on FY 2026 cost of capital application (final decision by end FY 2025)

    no prior guidance

    Rate Base Growth

    Through FY 2028

    10% rate base growth through 2028

    10% rate base growth through FY 2028

    no change

    Core EPS Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Anticipating 10% core EPS growth

    no prior guidance

    Bill Forecast

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Bills expected to decrease in FY 2025 compared to FY 2024, with further decrease forecast for FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    Nonfuel O&M Cost Reductions

    FY 2025

    Achieved a 4% reduction in 2024 and expects continued O&M savings

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Financing Plan

    Through FY 2028

    Equity needs through 2028 fully addressed following a $3 billion equity issuance and commitment to pay down $2 billion of parent debt

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Regulatory Filings

    FY 2025

    Plans to file the 2026 cost of capital application, 10-year undergrounding plan, and general rate case in 2025

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Beneficial Load Growth

    Emphasized throughout Q2, Q3, and Q4 2024 with detailed discussion around data center pipeline volumes (e.g. 5.5 GW in Q4 2024 and early mentions in Q2/Q3), customer savings estimates, and integration into long‐term financial planning

    Q1 2025 call highlighted an increased data center pipeline (from 5.5 to 8.7 GW) and detailed new estimates on customer savings and future engineering milestones

    Consistently positive – Beneficial load growth has been a recurring theme with an expanded pipeline and continued emphasis on reducing customer rates, reflecting strong momentum into 2025.

    Digital Infrastructure Expansion

    Discussed in Q2 and Q4 2024 as part of the broader strategy around data centers and digital demand; indirectly referenced in Q3 2024 via discussions on data center demand

    Q1 2025 provided further detail on integrating digital infrastructure via enhanced data center projects and regulatory collaboration, reinforcing its role in supporting beneficial load growth

    Steady and evolving – While always linked with beneficial load growth, digital infrastructure expansion in Q1 2025 is presented with more detailed integration into capital plans and regulatory filings, underscoring its strategic importance.

    Regulatory & Legislative Uncertainty

    Q2 2024 emphasized AB 1054 benefits and wildfire fund reimbursement; Q3 2024 focused on wildfire fund and regulatory approvals; Q4 2024 discussed needed legislative reforms and stakeholder engagement for AB 1054

    Q1 2025 discussed the critical nature of AB 1054 with a constructive legislative outlook for 2025, further refining the regulatory narrative to balance customer rates and investor confidence

    Consistent with an optimistic shift – The regulatory focus has remained strong across all periods, with Q1 2025 showing more optimism regarding legislative resolution and refined cost recovery, while still addressing persistent uncertainties.

    Investment Grade & Credit Rating Developments

    In Q2 2024 and Q3 2024, PG&E detailed its positioning one notch below investment grade with positive outlooks and ongoing initiatives to reduce parent debt; Q4 2024 highlighted improved credit metrics and equity issuances supporting the plan

    Q1 2025 noted that the utility credit rating has now reached investment grade while the holding company still lags, emphasizing that resolving AB 1054 uncertainty is key for further rating upgrades

    Upward momentum – The discussions remain consistently focused on credit improvements with incremental rating upgrades, now marked by a notable upgrade at the utility level in Q1 2025, though final holdco status remains pending.

    Operational Cost Management & O&M Savings

    Q2 focused on achieving 2% savings targets with detailed savings from inspections and contract improvements; Q3 discussed multiple cost-saving initiatives and process efficiency; Q4 highlighted nonfuel O&M savings (4%) and their contribution to affordability

    Q1 2025 reported modest nonfuel O&M savings in the quarter and reaffirmed the plan to grow these savings over the year, continuing to leverage its lean operating system

    Steady with incremental growth – The company consistently emphasizes cost management; while Q1 2025 shows slight short‐term variance, the overall strategy and potential for further savings remain robust.

    Wildfire Risks & Mitigation Strategies

    Q2, Q3, and Q4 2024 provided detailed accounts on mitigations such as PSPS, advanced technologies, risk assessments, and wildfire fund reimbursements; significant regulatory and operational focus was maintained

    Q1 2025 reiterated the proven wildfire risk mitigation performance, highlighted specific prevention programs and undergrounding benefits, and maintained focus on technological and legislative strategies

    Consistently prioritized – Wildfire risk management remains a major strategic focus with a sustained and optimistic tone in Q1 2025, reflecting both proven safety measures and ongoing enhancements in mitigation and technology.

    Undergrounding Initiatives

    Q2 2024 provided mileage targets and detailed progress; Q3 2024 discussed filing requirements and cost‐effectiveness compared to alternatives; Q4 2024 reiterated its role in reducing ignition risk using advanced technology implementations

    Q1 2025 reinforced undergrounding as a key wildfire mitigation strategy with clear cost-saving estimates and upcoming regulatory filings, emphasizing benefits in high-risk areas and competitive cost at only $1 per month for customers

    Increasing emphasis and clarity – The focus remains high across all periods, with Q1 2025 offering further detail on expected O&M and vegetation management savings, indicating a strategy gaining more clarity and operational commitment.

    Capital Expenditure & Rate Base Growth

    Q2 highlighted a $62 billion base plan plus incremental investments; Q3 detailed an updated $63 billion plan with added energization spend boosting rate base growth; Q4 reiterated flexibility in managing additional capital needs and renewals for customer-beneficial investments

    Q1 2025 reaffirmed the $63 billion plan through 2028, emphasized incremental capital toward transmission and beneficial load growth, and underscored plans for a future General Rate Case filing to support 10% annual rate base growth

    Consistently ambitious – The capital investment and rate base growth narrative is consistently strong, with Q1 2025 maintaining the upbeat tone and emphasizing continued investments with a focus on affordability and long-term customer benefits.

    Financing Challenges & Higher Cost of Capital

    Q2 and Q4 referenced flexible debt paydown targets, supportive regulatory ROE increases, and efficient financing through equity issuances and junior notes; Q3 mentioned efficient financing practices, though not explicitly highlighting challenges

    Q1 2025 discussed the upcoming 2026 cost of capital filing, balanced affordability concerns with investor needs, and highlighted actions like equity issuances and DOE facility benefits to mitigate finance costs

    Managed and controlled – Financing challenges and rising capital costs remain a recurring issue but are addressed with a disciplined financing plan; Q1 2025 reflects a continued proactive stance to manage these costs while ensuring affordability.

    EPS Growth & Financial Performance Guidance

    Q2, Q3, and Q4 consistently set guidance ranges with targets around 10% growth in 2024 and at least 9% annually thereafter; detailed discussions on core EPS in each call with supporting factors such as O&M savings and improved cash flow

    Q1 2025 reaffirmed the 2025 EPS guidance (midpoint up 10% from 2024) and reiterated long-term targets, noting a slight quarterly dip attributed to ROE and dilution but confident overall in achieving stated growth

    Stable with diminished emphasis – While detailed guidance was a major point in earlier periods, Q1 2025 continues to confirm growth targets with less focus on granular quarterly fluctuations, signaling a maturing and stable financial outlook.

    Customer Electricity Bill Impact

    Q2 discussions emphasized maintaining rate increases at or below inflation through beneficial load growth and improved cost-to-capital ratios; Q3 and Q4 described flat or reduced bill trends supported by O&M savings and load growth measures

    Q1 2025 stressed that customer bills are lower than 2024 and are forecast to drop further in 2026, citing beneficial load growth from data centers and new efficiency measures as key drivers

    Continuously positive – The focus on affordability and lowering customer bills remains consistent, with Q1 2025 reinforcing previous themes and providing optimistic forward guidance for further reductions in future periods.

    1. Cost & Growth
      Q: What are your ROE and EPS forecasts?
      A: Management explained that they plan conservatively using a 11.3% cost of capital, which supports stable long‐term EPS growth in line with their forward guidance.

    2. Investment Grade
      Q: When will you reach investment grade?
      A: They noted a recent Moody’s upgrade and expect further progress to achieve investment grade once the AB 1054 uncertainty is resolved.

    3. Rate Case Filing
      Q: What is your general rate case strategy?
      A: The company will file its GRC on May 15, leveraging a simple affordable model that reflects record low rate requests and solid O&M savings.

    4. SB410 Capital
      Q: How will the $2.8B SB410 capital be managed?
      A: Management confirmed that the SB410 filing caps the new capital, ensuring timely customer connections with proper cost recovery.

    5. Data Centers Online
      Q: When will data centers be operational?
      A: They project that 90% of the 1.4GW in final engineering will be online by 2030, based on detailed engineering studies.

    6. Data Center Pipeline
      Q: How is the data center pipeline progressing?
      A: The flow from final engineering to construction is underway, with most spend allocated between 2026 and 2030, mainly in transmission projects.

    7. Tariff Exposure
      Q: What cost impact will tariffs have?
      A: Tariff exposure is minimal—only about 1/3 of transformers face a 12% tariff, equating to roughly $100 million of spend, which is manageable.

    8. Upside CapEx
      Q: How is the additional $5B CapEx viewed?
      A: The upside, largely in transmission, can be integrated by optimizing the existing $63B plan to improve both affordability and investment growth.

    9. Undergrounding Plan
      Q: What benefits does the undergrounding plan offer?
      A: Their 10‐year plan in high‐risk areas is expected to deliver $465M in O&M savings and over $280M in vegetation savings through undergrounding 1,203 miles.

    10. Wildfire Attachment
      Q: Is there progress on wildfire fund attachment rates?
      A: Management mentioned that many ideas are under review, aiming for a constructive legislative outcome that supports customer affordability.

    11. Wildfire Legislation
      Q: Will wildfire fund changes lower rate pressures?
      A: They believe legislative action will help smooth rates by balancing the wildfire fund without increasing customers’ bills.

    12. Shareholder Funds
      Q: Should investors contribute to the wildfire fund?
      A: Management is clear that there is no case for investor contributions, as the fund is meant solely for rate recovery and consumer protection.

    13. AB1054 Outcome
      Q: What is the outlook for AB1054 modifications?
      A: Confidence remains high in a constructive legislative outcome this year, though specifics are not being disclosed yet.

    14. IRA Exposure
      Q: How does IRA affect your outlook?
      A: PG&E faces minimal IRA impact since there are no significant utility-owned solar projects underway, focusing instead on competitive procurement.

    15. Data Center Cluster
      Q: What feedback emerged from cluster studies?
      A: Initial cluster studies have spurred extra gigawatt interest, though additional applications will be carefully vetted before inclusion.

    16. Line Safety
      Q: What is being done about idled power lines?
      A: They have proactively removed 64 de-energized lines and continue to review remaining ones to ensure safe configurations and prevent induction risks.